Barack Obama is going to be reelected comfortably in the Electoral Vote. I believe he will also eke out over 50% of the popular vote. This last might be more a matter of what I desperately want to see rather than clear minded analysis (not least because of the voter suppression efforts by the GOP in several states), but let’s all hope I am correct. If Obama holds the office but does not win the popular vote, the expected insane response of the right will be over the top and an unavoidably dangerous situation will become extremely perilous. More on this after the election results are clear.
There seems to be no argument that the Democrats will hold the Senate, although most think it will be by the narrowest of margins. I actually believe they will pick up a seat, maybe two.
The Democrats will gain some House seats, that is inevitable no matter who wins the Presidency. How many they win, and whether or not they take down some of the worst of the Tea Party crowd in the process (Allan West and Michelle Bachmann would be nice), will lay out the best path toward taking the House back in 2014. That is an imperative, as continued GOP obstruction for the sake of obstruction in 2013 should finally make it a feasible goal.
I confess that these predictions are all based on the idea that the American electorate is, ultimately, smarter and wiser than it appears most of the time. This is a drastic shift from my general appraisal of that electorate.
See you on the other side…
I HAVE HEARD THE MERMAIDS SINGING 
Actually, Nate Silver agrees with you on pretty much all of this. (Except that he agrees with the slim Senate majority rather than Dems coming out with a net gain.)
Unfortunately, I don’t think anything will happen in the Senate unless they change the filibuster rules.
For me, the biggest worry is voter turnout in storm-damaged areas. Especially given GOP voter suppression efforts in key swing states.
From what I read on the right wing internets, Nate Silver is Satan Incarnate because he uses the arcane science of mathematics rather than just believe what you want to believe (also, Rush and Fox), so I presume I am damned. This will not come as news to most who know me…
I don’t expect anybody to believe me on this, but in my initial version of this post I had predicted that the Dems would “pick up 5-8 House seats,” but I chickened out. And now it appears that the final count is likely to show a pickup of 8. Damn, this prediction would have been damned near perfect if I hadn’t turned cautious.
By the way, in case you missed it, Bachmann squeaked through to another term but West went down.
At least Bachmann was close. Glad to have West out. And having Grayson back will balance Bachmann a bit. Also, marriage equality ballot measures went the right way. And most of the Senate races went our way. And the rape guys lost. So did McMahon. All in all… it was a very good night.
> And the rape guys lost. <
only a couple who opened their mouths about it, but yeah, Akin, Mourdock and that wonderful non-guitar playing Joe Walsh are gone. Too bad we couldn't add the King boys to the tally. And, as mentioned in a previous post, we have the extra bonus of getting Al Grayson back. You go Al! I'm sure he's already yelling at his mirror for practice, can't wait.
Forgot to add that if we had more congressmen like Grayson, I might actually register as a Democrat. Would like to see him piss on Grover Norquist’s desk.
I never knew you had an “on” button, Thomas, but somebody sure pushed it this morning.
the shit I’ve had to listen to from those asshats the past two years…………………………..