Barack Obama is going to be reelected comfortably in the Electoral Vote. I believe he will also eke out over 50% of the popular vote. This last might be more a matter of what I desperately want to see rather than clear minded analysis (not least because of the voter suppression efforts by the GOP in several states), but let’s all hope I am correct. If Obama holds the office but does not win the popular vote, the expected insane response of the right will be over the top and an unavoidably dangerous situation will become extremely perilous. More on this after the election results are clear.
There seems to be no argument that the Democrats will hold the Senate, although most think it will be by the narrowest of margins. I actually believe they will pick up a seat, maybe two.
The Democrats will gain some House seats, that is inevitable no matter who wins the Presidency. How many they win, and whether or not they take down some of the worst of the Tea Party crowd in the process (Allan West and Michelle Bachmann would be nice), will lay out the best path toward taking the House back in 2014. That is an imperative, as continued GOP obstruction for the sake of obstruction in 2013 should finally make it a feasible goal.
I confess that these predictions are all based on the idea that the American electorate is, ultimately, smarter and wiser than it appears most of the time. This is a drastic shift from my general appraisal of that electorate.
See you on the other side…